VT Politics

Ending Posts

2005-07-01T08:58:00.000-05:00

Due to a threat made against one of our family members, we feel the need to stop posts. We will see what the future holds.

Problems?!?

2005-06-23T14:26:00.000-05:00

Has anyone else noticed that Gen. Rainville does not have an answer for this? We have tried to help by talking with some of her closer associates about this problem. We are feeling a little ignored at the moment. So we thought we'd throw it out to you. Ideas or suggestion on how Gen. Rainville can "handle" this problem? Leave a comment.

Do one thing

The people of Enosburg Falls were proud and happy to welcome Adjutant Gen. Martha Rainville recently as a marshal of the Dairy Days parade. We have more than 60 men serving in Iraq and we applaud her leadership.

What concerns me, however, as a resident of Vermont and supporter of our National Guard troops, is Rainville's stated intention to run for Congress while still serving as adjutant general of the Vermont National Guard. Her work for the Guard deserves her full attention.

Moreover, in August, in reference to a planned political event by Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie at a fund-raiser for National Guard families, Martha Rainville was quoted as saying: "It is very important for everyone to realize that support for guard families is nonpartisan. Anything that would connect the guard family to politics, even by perception, could be damaging to the families." If she really believes that, she should certainly not mix Guard service with politics by running for Congress while still commanding Vermont's Guard.

LINDA M. MALONEY

Enosburg Falls

Dubie Dubie Do

2005-06-20T12:49:00.000-05:00

Sorry we have been gone for so long. It was just a little too “hot” for us in the kitchen so we needed to get out for a bit. But we are back and better than ever.

Lots have happened in the last couple of weeks. Including the trend of Brian Dubie setting up his Congressional race and more forces being marshaled against Gen. Rainville.

The news of Speaker Hastert in town was reported just a little late by the mainstream. What we find interesting is the assumption that Hastert was here to meet with Gen. Rainville. In reality, the true nature of Hastert’s visit was a recruiting trip of Brian Dubie. Hastert’s choice to run for congress is Dubie. Oh, and to raise a little money, never forget the money.

Why? Because Gen. Rainville indicated to Hastert in DC that she was not willing to step down from her General position. Her argument is that she is an elected leader just like Governor, Treaurer, State Senator etc… And it would be perfectly acceptable for any of these positions to run for congress and still serve in office. She feels she is being held to a higher standard and that it would be different if she was of the opposite sex.

Hastert’s response is to recruit Brian Dubie, so you see what he thinks of that argument.

Hastert, like us, doesn’t think Vermonters will buy that argument. Gen. Rainville will be in Mississippi this week to see a couple of hundred Guardspeople off to Iraq. And that is the very reason why being General isn’t the same as other elected positions. No other job has the sole responsibility of the welfare of the lives of Vermonters quite like being General.

It may be a double standard, but that just shows the naiveté of Gen. Rainville and her supporters. Politics aren’t fair, get used to it.

Dubie is feeling pretty good about himself right now. Being lobbied by everyone, offered more money than Vermont has ever seen and calls from the White House (Andrew Card not GW yet), Congressional leaders and US GOP Senators. Pretty heady stuff, and we might say it is going to his head just a little.

On the other side.

The worst kept secret in Vermont is Senate Welch’s will run for congress. The details are not done but look for an announcement next week, probably Wednesday. We still say we were right at the time and Welch has changed his mind.

The real scramble is what to do with Peter Shumlin. He is not willing to listen to anyone and the more frightening fact is why hasn’t anyone called him. The lack of communication is going to have this thing blow-up.

Has it begun?

2005-06-01T12:31:00.000-05:00

Re-reading some of the posts we appear, at least to us, to be a little bias against General Rainville. We hate to continue this trend but we have no other choice. Some pretty big forces have been marshaled against her. They all stem from the simple charge of how can General Rainville run for congress and lead the Vermont National Guard.

Is General Rainville putting a single troop in harms way by not being totally, solely, focused on her job?

And, heaven for bid, something did happen while she was campaigning, could General Rainville forgive herself, and would the people of Vermont forgive her?

Below is a script for either a TV or radio ad that has been circulating for revising and editing. It still needs a lot of work but we think you’ll get the idea. Also note it is constructed so a PAC or 527 could run it instead of a candidate.

Narrator #1(Male): For 367 years the men and women of the Vermont National Guard have served our state and our national with pride, bravery, and dignity. Many have even given the ultimate sacrifice.

Narrator #2 (Female): Our current General, Martha Rainville, has done a magnificent job in her term. We share her belief that no matter what our troops and thier families need all of our support.

Narrator #1 or concerned citizens or guards people or their family: But General Rainville is mixing politics and safety of our troops. While running for congress is an admiral, it will get in the way of keeping our troops safe.

Narrator #2: Call General Rainville and tell her that she should concentrate on protecting our troops and NOT playing politics!

Cafeteria hearing

2005-05-27T12:36:00.000-05:00

We recently were in the statehouse cafeteria and had the privilege of talking with some very friendly outspoken folks. What they said led us to some digging, what follows is the result.

As we posted earlier, Lt. Gov. Dubie has cut a deal with Gov. Douglas to clear the field for his impending congressional run. We know this decision by both Dubie and Douglas more than ruffled the feathers of many, most importantly, General Rainville, but we never would have guessed this one.

GOP Chairman Barnett, former staff and hand picked chairman of Douglas, is OUTRAGED. He is holding it in, for now, so much so, he has not even spoken directly to Douglas about it. Oh, they have had conversations about the congressional race, but the rift between the two is growing and manifesting in other ways.

Barnett labeled as “mad dog” or “little Karl Rove” clearly has a more conservative bent to him especially on federal issues than his mentor Douglas. His vicious attacks on all non-Republicans have earned him a well-deserved reputation. His reputation of hard work, extraordinary research skills, and winning are also well-deserved.

So it is a bit surprising that Barnett has decided to go to the mat for another moderate, Rainville, over the conservative Dubie. For Barnett it is all about winning. He believes Rainville will win. Dubie is at best a 50/50 bet.

Barnett is worried about his own legacy as much and Douglas’. If Barnett had his way, he’d leave the state after this election cycle with only one Democrat standing for major statewide office, Sen. Leahy. Not bad in such a liberal state.

The real problems start for all parties involved, Douglas, Dubie, Barnett, and Rainville, when Barnett started ignoring his duty of being an impartial chairman. So far Barnett has been “caught” twice actively helping Rainville even with the knowledge that Dubie is going to run. Dubie is a “little confused” by the whole situation. His understanding of what happened and what is happening is very little. So much so, he has started looking at possibilities of trying to get “his own guy” into GOP HQ.

If anything, our impression is this is a bigger deal to everyone involved than stated above or we really know. We’ll continue do some digging but Barnett and Douglas are defiantly working at cross-purposes for the first time ever. At least working against each other for the first time when it wasn’t scripted. As everyone knows they are the best good cop, bad cop combination Vermont has ever seen.

On the Democratic side, the grumbling is more about Chairman Mallary and his style, especially at the statehouse. As Mallary is only an interim chairman, some have begun looking for a replacement. No real takers yet, but lots of names.

Finally, we have posted that Sen. Welch is not running for congress. More and more, we think we are being played, along with everyone else. We aren’t ready to come out and say Welch is now running but we will say Sen. Welch is doing a magnificent misinformation campaign. Or he has just flip-flopped so many times in his own head he doesn’t know either.

Naming Names?

2005-05-26T12:27:00.000-05:00

Maybe a miss leading title, sorry.

We hate to post another non-insider post and we know the folks over at 802 are waiting in great anticipation about our cafeteria post but some new information is coming to light that will make it even better.

In the meantime, a recent comment brings us to an little internal debate we are having over here. What do our the readers think of our corny, silly, names we have created for some political figures.

We don't want to be hurtful, and the idea of silly names is a direct rip off from Fryane. So maybe we should drop them, or come up with new ones, or just less harsh names. You decide:

a)drop the silly names
b)the names are fun, keep them
c)the names are fun, but change them up once in awhile
d)the names are fine, but make sure they won't insult
f)who the flipp'in cares, just keep the info coming!!

Who the hell are we?!

2005-05-25T09:38:00.000-05:00

We here at Vtpolitics pride ourselves at having a total open blog. Anyone can post anything they want.

We expect widely varying degrees of acceptance and respect. If someone wants to call us a fraud, we have absolutely NO problems with that what so ever. Skepticism is a good thing. And who the hell are we? A couple of yahoo’s who have being blogging for a short amount of time. What creditability have we built?

Cathy over at 802 has pointed out some of the problems with us posting anonymously. She has some very valid points. We posted a response, click here to read. The short version is, we are protecting ourselves and people would stop talking with us if they knew it would appear for all the world to see.

Be skeptical, call us frauds, make us build some credibility; we know it comes with the territory. However, we will also do our best to blog what we know to be true at the time. Things change, people change their minds, situations change, and yes we may get something wrong eventually.

In the end, we hope you’ll find information or ideas you can’t find anywhere else. Most politics are done out of sight of the public, and why should it be that way?

Backing who? Why?

2005-05-23T15:32:00.000-05:00

We have been sitting on this info for a while because we didn’t want to blow our cover. We believe enough people either know or have figured it out, we can now connect some of the dots.

Gov. Doug-always-less has decided to back I need a new job Dubie over don’t Rainville on my parade for congress.

As we stated before, I need a new job Dubie will run for congress and now he has Douglas’ backing. Why would he do such a thing, you ask? Because Dubie would win a primary but a primary would cost the Republicans a chance at the seat.

Some background is in order:

Dubie has rounded up the “troops” and are already sticking it to Rainville in letters to the editors, in the newspaper editorial rooms, an in a whisper campaign about how Rainville will be putting troops in harms way by running for congress and being General at the same time.

It was Douglas’ idea to put the seat belt public service announcements back on TV featuring Dubie to give him some free commercials, help top off his name recognition, and provide people with some warm thoughts about Dubie. (it is a pretty big, lengthy buy)

It was Dubie’s idea, but Douglas has agreed, to appoint Dubie’s brother, Mike Dubie guard General if and when there is an opening through Rainville’s resigning (or really any reason). This really, really irks Rainville because she does not think Mike is the right person for the job. (The legislature would get their say later)

Dubie promises to NEVER run for Senate if Douglas wants the chance in future cycles.

There are other conditions we'll save for another day.

All historical primary voting data points to Dubie not Rainville winning a primary.

Plus, a native Vermonter, who is pro-life, pro-Christian, pro-Bush, married with kids, who has put in his time in the Republican party, run and won state-wide, and can fundraise,
BEATS
an out-of-stater, pro-choice, brand new Republican, divorcee, who has never run or won an election of regular Vermonters and who hates asking people for money, every single time in a Republican primary.

Then there is the matter of a little poll that was taken; you can read about that below.

So after Dubie convinced Douglas that he was going to run regardless of Rainville, Douglas thought it would be best to back the likely primary winner, and try his best to prevent a primary.

Which is very important because a Dubie vs. Rainville primary we be expensive and very ugly because there is no love loss between the two. Frankly the two are very, very hostile to each other behind each other’s back. (stab, stab, stab)

Called out

2005-05-22T22:57:00.000-05:00

We appear to facing our first public criticism. Cathy over at 802 http://7d.blogs.com/ called us out a little for not have any real insider info.

Part of the fine line we walk is providing information but not blowing our cover. We wish we could tell all of our great readers everything we know. If we did, we’d be had immediately.

Bare with us, we are still new and figuring this all out as we go!

Also, we publicly apologize to Cathy for the perception that we were pressuring her to add us to her links. We would like to thank her and everyone who has linked our page. We feel we have been welcomed into the Vermont blog community with open arms.

If you'd like to read all about it click here.

http://7d.blogs.com/802online/2005/05/insiders.html

Get the inside scoop!

2005-05-22T21:00:00.000-05:00

Introducing the inside scoop to politics in Vermont!

We'll see if anyone ever finds this blog and what they have to say about it.

So congratulations if you are here, leave your mark.
~

Can't do both

2005-05-22T15:57:00.000-05:00

We don't know Beverly Mayo, but we do know that don't Rainville on my parade better come up with an answer to criticisms like this letter to the editor. We have asked her, and we have heard her answer the following type criticism, and we assure you she has not formulated a good answer yet!

She may end up being a candidate for Congress but if she wants to win, she better give up her General title.

Can't do both
When the Free Press named Martha Rainville its Person of the Year for 2004, my immediate reaction was that Rainville should have declined the honor, and instead asked that it be given to troops who have served overseas and their families. But, I assumed that the award reflected well on the entire Vermont National Guard, and let my own objection pass.

With Rainville's announcement that she may run for Congress, and serve as Adjutant General at the same time, I have concluded that Rainville has developed a healthy ego after years on the job. Isn't that one of the charges she made about her predecessor, Don Edwards?

If, at a time of war, Rainville really believes she can be out shaking hands, kissing babies and picking out photos of herself for campaign literature, and serve as Adjutant General at the same time, she has lost touch with the Guard, and the people of Vermont.

Members of the Vermont National Guard serving overseas need a full time Adjutant General who is genuinely interested in them and their families. Martha, you can't be sipping tea with the rich and famous at out of state fundraisers, and be Adjutant General at the same time. It's time to resign.
BEVERLY MAYO
Bomoseen
~

Why wouldn't Dubie go?

2005-05-19T12:02:00.000-05:00

So our RSCC friend dropped us a clarification today about our Blog. We stated before that the RCSS paid for the Public Opinion Strategies poll. Apparently they only paid for a "hand full of questions."

So we begged for some more numbers and we got some useful stuff and some not so useful stuff. This was by far the most interesting! The sample is a little small because it is of only "likely Republican" voters. (NOT "likely Republican primary" voters, which would have made it even smaller)

-----------All--Men--Women--North--South
Dubie------68---73----57-----65-----70
Rainville---22---10----35-----25-----18
No Answer--10---17-----7-----10-----12

So what do we gather from this. We are more sure than ever that I need a new job Dubie will have one by the end of the election cycle. He'll either be a Congressman or an airline pilot.

Don't Rainville on my parade must now know she has major name recognition problems and that in a primary a "moderate Douglas-like" Republican will get thumped by a pro-life, pro-Bush, pro-war R.

On another note, we double confirmed with our source on watered down grape Welch juice not running because we are hearing lots of noise to the contrary. Or less he is talked into running or has a change of heart we believe as of right now he is NOT running.

Two Birds One Stone

2005-05-17T19:38:00.000-05:00

We thought we would break these newsies together.

Sorry for having to cite those nasty, nasty undisclosed sources close to the individuals, but it is the only way we won't get busted then have to leave the country. And you wouldn't want that!

I need a better job Dubie, is going to be pro-life, pro-Bush, pro-war, candidate for Tom Delay's building majority.

You ask, what about Don't Rainville on my Parade? A bit of cold feet, two press stumbles, and the realization she'd probably have to give up her soldier boys (and girls) sooner than later.

We are told this is a done deal well 99.9%. An interesting side note, Money bags Tarrant is also getting a little cold feet. All of a sudden little Jim Karl Rove Barnett is looking at a Indy Sanders/Park it re-match. Yikes!

The other news, we are a little less likely to believe is totally locked-up but our source is good and has first-hand knowledge.

Watered down grape Welch juice, will NOT run to keep Tom Delay's majority from getting any bigger.

He is telling people he will make up his mind after the session. Which is still probably correct. We also believe that a couple of Donkey jackasses will try to talk old grape juice into running.

So the Donkey field is wide open, still, little Jim Karl Rove Barnett, must be little disappointed that he has to shelve all those hours of research on Juice.
~

No Wonder

2005-05-14T16:00:00.000-05:00

A little birdie friend of ours from DC dropped me these two sections of a poll done by the RSCC. No wonder Jimmy Doug-always-less loves being Governor.

Douglas
--------------All--Men--Women--North--South
Favorable----49---53----46-----51-----48
Unfavorable--44---42----47-----43-----44
No Opinion---4----3------6-----4-------4
Dont Recg---2----3------1-----2-------3

If the election to replace retiring US Senator Jim Jeffords were held today who would you vote for: Independent Congressman Bernie Sanders or Republican Governor Jim Douglas (Alternate names)

-----------All--Men--Women--North--South
Sanders----57---55----59-----58-----57
Douglas----39---43----36-----39-----39
No Answer---3----3-----4------3------3

The poll was done by Public Opinion Strategies, a huge polling firm and one of the best the Republicans have. It also happens to be the firm Jimmy Doug-always-less used during his 04 Gov race. Wonder if he gained any "value" from the poll and if it will show up on his state expenditure reports?

Interestingly, there has been two other polls done in VT recently. One done by WGOP, er I mean WCAX, and another that looks reputable but put in an email to supporters by VTGOP. That is a lot of off-year polling!
~

Things said out loud this week

2005-05-14T10:21:00.000-05:00

"I don't want to be lieutenant Governor anymore" Scooby Dubie (Over heard at a small R gathering)

"We need to find out if Rainville is pro-life or not" Said by a couple of Donkey insiders (Over heard more than once, in more than one place)

"I love making the Democrats squirm" Chairman Farmer Prog Zucker (Over heard while talking about the Italian Prog's Lt Gov announcement)

Political Odds Maker

2005-05-13T14:09:00.000-05:00

Maybe we'll throw out some odds

Who'll run for Senate:

Indy Sanders 100%

IDX Money Bags Tarrant 90%
Need a better job Dubie 50%
Another R 5%
An R primary 25% and declining

I got guts or am insane Democrat 10% and declining

Moose Progs 1%

Who'll run for Congress:

Don't Rainville on my parade 75% and declining
Need a better job Dubie 50% and climbing
Another R 25%
An R primary 35% and growing

Young ambitious turk Dunne 90% (but will step aside for watered down grape Welch juice)
Watered down grape Welch juice 50% and souring
Jeb I'd rather be governor 30%
Not going to be mayor anymore Clavelle 35%
Another D %50
A D primary 50%

Ponytail prog Zuckerman 15% and declining
Another P 5% and declining

(Vermont is very open and lots of nuts run under party labels, they are not included in the above odds)
~

2005-05-12T15:42:00.000-05:00

An agreement has been reached between us!